When Prediction Markets Price War: The 46.5% Signal Nobody Wants to See
I remember the exact moment I saw the Polymarket odds for “complete airspace...
Block reward halving event
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
Team and early investor shares released
92 million ARB released
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
information warfare related articles
I remember the exact moment I saw the Polymarket odds for “complete airspace...
The Signal in the Static: How Prediction Markets Are Pricing Iranian Airspace...
I didn’t expect to see a 46% probability of a Gulf military conflict priced...
Consensus is broken. The market is lying to you about risk. On April 2025, an...
The denial came faster than the truth could surface. Within hours of reports...
Over the past 48 hours, Taiwan's Pave Paws radar system tracked a PLA ballist...
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s realized volatility jumped 12% following an...
Fear
Market Sentiment
Bitcoin Season
| # | Coin | Price |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bitcoin
BTC
|
$64,475.3 |
| 1 |
Ethereum
ETH
|
$1,879.02 |
| 1 |
Solana
SOL
|
$74.78 |
| 1 |
BNB Chain
BNB
|
$570 |
| 1 |
XRP Ledger
XRP
|
$1.1 |
| 1 |
Dogecoin
DOGE
|
$0.0726 |
| 1 |
Cardano
ADA
|
$0.1651 |
| 1 |
Avalanche
AVAX
|
$6.78 |
| 1 |
Polkadot
DOT
|
$0.8171 |
| 1 |
Chainlink
LINK
|
$8.4 |