The 36% Illusion: Why Prediction Markets Are Not Oracles of Truth
A prediction market shows a 36% probability that Gulf states will take milita...
Analysis
•
KaiLion
•
2026-07-20
Market Prices
BTC
Bitcoin
$64,475.3
+0.65%
ETH
Ethereum
$1,879.02
+0.98%
SOL
Solana
$74.78
+0.82%
BNB
BNB Chain
$570
+0.81%
XRP
XRP Ledger
$1.1
+0.52%
DOGE
Dogecoin
$0.0726
+4.12%
ADA
Cardano
$0.1651
+0.67%
AVAX
Avalanche
$6.78
+8.29%
DOT
Polkadot
$0.8171
+0.90%
LINK
Chainlink
$8.4
+0.74%
Event Calendar
202628
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Trending
💡 Smart Money
0x702a...4d1f
Experienced On-chain Trader
-$2.9M
75%
0x2cd1...27ab
Top DeFi Miner
+$2.7M
69%
0x26d0...bdf5
Arbitrage Bot
+$1.8M
81%
#systemic fragility
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Market Quotes
•
Credtoshi
•
2026-07-13
Fear & Greed
26
Fear
Market Sentiment
Altseason Index
43
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Market Cap
All →| # | Coin | Price |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bitcoin
BTC
|
$64,475.3 |
| 1 |
Ethereum
ETH
|
$1,879.02 |
| 1 |
Solana
SOL
|
$74.78 |
| 1 |
BNB Chain
BNB
|
$570 |
| 1 |
XRP Ledger
XRP
|
$1.1 |
| 1 |
Dogecoin
DOGE
|
$0.0726 |
| 1 |
Cardano
ADA
|
$0.1651 |
| 1 |
Avalanche
AVAX
|
$6.78 |
| 1 |
Polkadot
DOT
|
$0.8171 |
| 1 |
Chainlink
LINK
|
$8.4 |
🐋 Whale Tracker
🔵
0xc535...6874
3h ago
Stake
37,279 SOL
🟢
0x4794...3341
30m ago
In
2,291 ETH
🔵
0xaae7...cba9
1d ago
Stake
2,515,664 USDC